Article from https://conservativepost.co.uk/
The Great British PAC has dismissed escalating rhetoric from Mauritius over the Chagos Islands as political posturing driven by mounting domestic pressure.
Mauritius’ Attorney-General, Gavin Glover, recently warned that his government is “tired of relying on the goodwill of others” and will “escalate matters” if sovereignty is not transferred in the coming months, including the possibility of renewed legal action.
But figures within Great British PAC say the tone of those remarks reflects a government under strain rather than one negotiating from strength.
Claims of internal pressure
According to messages seen by the PAC and attributed to a senior Mauritian government source, there are growing concerns within government about the consequences of expectations tied to the Chagos negotiations not being met.
The messages refer to:
- Concerns around planned tax changes
- Anticipated public backlash if those measures cannot be delivered
- Preparations for potential civil unrest
Claire Bullivant, CEO of the Great British PAC said:
“This looks less like a confident negotiating position and more like a government that has made promises it won’t be able to keep. Frankly, this is just huffing and puffing from a government under pressure.”
They argue that the increasingly urgent language coming from Mauritian officials reflects mounting internal pressure rather than diplomatic leverage.
Financial stakes under scrutiny
At the centre of the dispute for many is the question of what Keir Starmer’s UK–Mauritius surrender would involve financially. In recent proceedings before the BIOT court, a detailed breakdown of payments associated with the proposed arrangements was set out. This included:
- Annual sovereignty payments totalling approximately £1.7 billion in the early years
- A £40 million trust fund
- Development grants of around £45 million annually over 25 years (approximately £1.1 billion)
- Longer-term payments extending from year 14 to year 99
On illustrative assumptions, including projected inflation over several decades, these long-term payments were estimated to reach tens of billions of pounds, bringing the overall total to around £50 billion.
While elements of this projection are based on real term modelling rather than fixed figures, the breakdown highlights the potential scale of the commitments under discussion.
“This is not a minor administrative decision,” Bullivant said. “We are talking about obligations that could run for decades and cost tens of billions. The British public has a right to know exactly what is being considered. This was not in the Labour manifesto. This was never put to voters, and there is no mandate to saddle the country with costs on this scale for the next century.”
Diplomatic push continues
Despite these concerns, negotiations remain ongoing. Officials from the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office are expected in Port Louis, while Mauritius is simultaneously engaging with the United States over the strategic future of the military base on Diego Garcia.
Mauritian politicians have also reiterated that they will pursue “any diplomatic or legal avenue” to advance their claim over the islands. A narrative under pressure
For Great British PAC, however, the current situation reflects a widening gap between political rhetoric and underlying realities.
“The more aggressive the rhetoric becomes, the clearer it is that something isn’t stacking up behind the scenes,” Bullivant said. “This is not strength, it’s pressure.”
They also questioned why the Labour government continues to invest time and resources in negotiations they describe as “a dead deal,” particularly given competing domestic priorities and the lack of clarity around costs and outcomes.
Mauritius has indicated that June could be a turning point, after which it may escalate the dispute through legal channels if progress is not made.
Bullivant said:
“We’ll be ready for them. We have the backing and we have the country behind us. The Chagos Islands are British and will remain so. The Chagossians have been very clear, they want to return as British citizens. They must be given the right to self-determination. Mauritius has no legitimate claim.”
With diplomatic activity intensifying and pressure building on multiple fronts, the coming months are likely to determine whether negotiations continue, or whether the long-running dispute enters a more confrontational phase.